Palermo vs Padova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Palermo 2-1 Padova.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Palermo, 28% draw, 29% Padova — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palermo at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palermo vs Padova
Line-ups
- 14M. FortinG
- 27N. PierozziD
- 13M. BaniD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 3T. AugelloD
- 8J. SegreM
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 9D. VavassoriM
- 5A. PalumboM
- 17D. JohnsenM
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 29P. PedaD
- 63N. BalagušsG
- 12M. NespolaG
- 36L. MazzitelliM
- 11E. GyasiD
- 6C. GomesM
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 24N. EstévezM
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27Alessandro DellavalleD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 17A. CapelliM
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 8P. FusiM
- 34M. CocchiM
- 11A. SeghettiF
- 9L. MoroF
- 14M. PompettiM
- 1L. MouquetG
- 15K. LasagnaF
- 25N. GalazziM
- 72C. FaedoD
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 24L. CarissoniD
- 10G. CaprariF
- 20M. BortolussiF
Form going into Palermo vs Padova
Palermo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
Padova
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026
What these results say
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Palermo won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Padova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Padova had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 | Padova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Padova
- 21 March 2026Padova 0–1 PalermoSerie B
- 27 December 2025Palermo 1–0 PadovaSerie B
- 12 June 2022Palermo 1–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
- 5 June 2022Padova 0–1 PalermoSerie C - Girone A
- 22 April 2019Palermo 1–1 PadovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Palermo and Padova
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen65
- D. Vavassori41
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palermo beat Padova 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Palermo at 43%. The goals: Christian Pastina 7' for Padova, Dominic Vavassori 44' for Palermo, Dominic Vavassori 83' for Palermo. Sent off: Lorenzo Carissoni (Padova) 90+1'.