Carrarese vs Benevento Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Carrarese 0-1 Benevento.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Carrarese, 29% draw, 33% Benevento — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Carrarese at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Carrarese vs Benevento
Line-ups
- 1S. PizzignaccoG
- 13F. RuggeriD
- 6F. OlianaD
- 33F. RealeD
- 2C. DagbaM
- 28J. MartiniM
- 18Nicolás SchiaviM
- 10T. RubinoM
- 73J. RouhiM
- 91G. MarconiF
- 9F. AbiusoF
- 21N. BonfantiF
- 7N. BelloniM
- 23M. BraunöderM
- 11M. CisséF
- 70N. CudrigF
- 32M. FinottoF
- 12G. GarofaniG
- 5T. MacchioniD
- 77G. ParlantiM
- 26G. VannucchiG
- 77E. PierozziD
- 14S. ScognamilloD
- 23P. SaioD
- 17L. SernicolaD
- 6A. SiatounisM
- 8M. MaitaM
- 28C. KouanM
- 11D. LamestaM
- 29D. OkerekeM
- 9F. SalveminiF
- 21E. SchimmentiM
- 4A. PriscoM
- 32G. MignaniF
- 16Mattia ManniniD
- 22M. EspositoG
- 15C. Dalle MuraD
- 10L. CherubiniF
- 5L. CaldirolaD
- 20P. BeruattoD
Form going into Carrarese vs Benevento
Carrarese
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
- L1-2Mantova22 August 2026
Benevento
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
- D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
- L1-2Modena22 August 2026
What these results say
- Carrarese did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Carrarese conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
- Benevento conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Benevento failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Benevento scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Carrarese | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | Benevento | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Benevento
- 2 June 2024Benevento 2–2 CarrareseSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
- 28 May 2024Carrarese 1–0 BeneventoSerie C - Promotion - Play-offs
Leading scorers: Carrarese and Benevento
Carrarese
GoalsAssists
- T. Rubino30
Benevento
GoalsAssists
- A. Siatounis30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benevento won 1–0 at Carrarese. The model had leaned towards a win for Carrarese at 38% and given a win for Benevento 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Antonio prisco 66' for Benevento.