Cremonese
vs
Virtus Entella
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cremonese 1–0 Virtus Entella
The model makes it 50% Cremonese, 28% draw, 22% Virtus Entella — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Cremonese 1.85, Virtus Entella 0.86.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cremonese vs Virtus Entella
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Cremonese wins, grey are draws, red are Virtus Entella wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cremonese at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cremonese vs Virtus Entella
Cremonese
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
- W3-1Padova6 September 2026
- L0-3Modena28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Empoli22 August 2026
Virtus Entella
- W4-1away to Pisa11 September 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus6 September 2026
- L1-2Cesena29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sudtirol22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cremonese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Virtus Entella
- 16 March 2021Virtus Entella 0–2 CremoneseSerie B
- 5 December 2020Cremonese 2–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 25 January 2020Virtus Entella 1–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 31 August 2019Cremonese 0–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 25 March 2018Cremonese 0–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 24 October 2017Virtus Entella 1–1 CremoneseSerie B
Leading scorers: Cremonese and Virtus Entella
Cremonese
- F. Bonazzoli3 goals1 assists
Virtus Entella
- Bernat Guiu1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cremonese carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.54 for Virtus Entella. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Cremonese and 0.86 for Virtus Entella. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cremonese rate 0.86 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Virtus Entella rate 0.71 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Virtus Entella, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cremonese the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Cremonese against 0.86 for Virtus Entella. Cremonese's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.32 for Virtus Entella.