19 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Ascoli vs Avellino Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Ascoli 3-1 Avellino.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Ascoli, 29% draw, 30% Avellino — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ascoli at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
L. Di Maggio
17'
⚽Raffaele Russoassist: Martin Palumbo
Nicholas Rizzo
45+2'
45'
🔁Brando Moruzziout: Marco Sala
⚽Patrick Enrici (OG)
49'
Giovanni Corradini
60'
🔁Don Bolsiusout: Giacomo De Pieri
66'
🔁Giovanni Corradiniout: Gabriele Gori
66'
🔁Matteo Brunoriout: Andrea Oliveri
66'
68'
🔁L. Di Maggioout: Dimitrios Sounas
⚽Andrea·Silipoassist: Tommaso Milanese
72'
79'
Michele Besaggio
80'
🔁Patrick Enriciout: Tommaso Biasci
80'
🔁Walid Cheddiraout: Luca Pandolfi
🔁Tommaso Milaneseout: Gennao Acampora
81'
⚽Andrea·Silipoassist: Gabriele Gori
86'
🔁Andrea·Silipoout: Federico Gattoni
88'
88'
🔁Michele Besaggioout: S. Di Paolo

Match stats — Ascoli vs Avellino

63%Possession37%
15Shots12
6On target3
5Corners1

Line-ups

Ascoli 3-5-2
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 62T. MilaneseD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 77D. BolsiusM
  • 19A. GuiébréM
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
  • 15S. D'UffiziF
Substitutes
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 9A. ChakirF
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 35G. GoriF
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 14A. OliveriM
  • 11S. PerciunM
Coach: Francesco Tomei
Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 2F. MissoriM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 9W. CheddiraF
  • 10R. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 24D. SounasM
  • 3M. SalaD
  • 7L. PandolfiF
  • 6L. PalmieroM
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 99A. FavilliF
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 5A. Di BitontoD
  • 14T. BiasciF
Coach: A. Nesta

Form going into Ascoli vs Avellino

Ascoli

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
  • W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
  • D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026

Avellino

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
  • W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
  • L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ascoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ascoli conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
  • Avellino scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ascoli9531166+1018
10Avellino93331310+312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Avellino

  • 5 May 2018Ascoli 1–1 AvellinoSerie B
  • 16 December 2017Avellino 1–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 25 April 2017Ascoli 2–0 AvellinoSerie B
  • 3 December 2016Avellino 1–2 AscoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Avellino

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo42
  • M. Besaggio30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ascoli beat Avellino 3–1. The model had made a win for Ascoli its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Raffaele Russo 17' for Avellino, Patrick Enrici (own goal) 49' for Ascoli, Andrea·Silipo 72' for Ascoli, Andrea·Silipo 86' for Ascoli.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.