Turku PS
vs
Ilves
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Turku PS 1–0 Ilves
The model makes it 34% Turku PS, 32% draw, 34% Ilves — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Turku PS 1.08, Ilves 1.07.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Turku PS vs Ilves
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Turku PS wins, grey are draws, red are Ilves wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Turku PS at 34% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Turku PS vs Ilves
Turku PS
- L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
Ilves
- W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Turku PS vs Ilves
- 20 July 2026Turku PS 1–3 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026Ilves 1–0 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 27 May 2026Ilves 1–0 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 26 April 2023Turku PS 0–2 IlvesSuomen Cup
- 25 March 2023Ilves 2–0 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
- 27 September 2020Ilves 4–0 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Turku PS and Ilves
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Ilves
- T. Hytönen6 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Turku PS carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.3 for Ilves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Turku PS and 1.07 for Ilves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Turku PS rate 0.39 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ilves rate 0.56 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turku PS the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Turku PS against 1.07 for Ilves. Turku PS's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.7 for Ilves.