Turku PS vs Ilves Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Turku PS 0-3 Ilves.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Turku PS, 32% draw, 32% Ilves — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Turku PS at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Turku PS vs Ilves
Line-ups
- 1E. HenrikssonG
- 2O. HäggströmD
- 14M. HrádeckýD
- 25Abdoulie TambaD
- 20M. KauppilaD
- 6Pau JuvantenyM
- 22T. ZaalM
- 10M. KönkköläM
- 28T. VakipartaM
- 11E. VauhkonenM
- 99K. VisserF
- 35D. LauriG
- 17A. SihvonenD
- 24N. TaloD
- 9L. IvanovicF
- 41S. AniniF
- 7R. HarjanneF
- 45Joel AhenF
- 12F. KrkalićG
- 24V. KumpuD
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 5S. VäisänenD
- 19Goudouss BambaM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 6Y. RaapM
- 13K. WalliusM
- 8M. StjopinF
- 9T. HytönenF
- 28J. KiloF
- 11H. CoulibalyF
- 45E. TamminenF
- 17S. BaranovF
- 15L. Ala-MyllymäkiM
- 3M. RaleD
- 31R. LeislahtiG
- 27F. KouakouD
Form going into Turku PS vs Ilves
Turku PS
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
- D0-0SJK8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku23 August 2026
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
Ilves
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
What these results say
- Turku PS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turku PS had two goals or fewer.
- Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ilves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Turku PS vs Ilves
- 20 July 2026Turku PS 1–3 IlvesFinnish Premier League
- 13 June 2026Ilves 1–0 Turku PSFinnish Premier League
- 27 May 2026Ilves 1–0 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 26 April 2023Turku PS 0–2 IlvesSuomen Cup
- 25 March 2023Ilves 2–0 Turku PSFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Turku PS and Ilves
Turku PS
GoalsAssists
- A. Muzaci30
Ilves
GoalsAssists
- T. Hytönen91
- J. Kanga43
- E. Tamminen42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ilves won 3–0 at Turku PS. The model had leaned towards a win for Turku PS at 36% and given a win for Ilves 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Teemu Hytönen (penalty) 24' for Ilves, Elias Tamminen 67' for Ilves, Stanislav Baranov 90+2' for Ilves.
How the call on Turku PS v Ilves has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is Turku PS's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Turku PS win36%▼ −4
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Ilves win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.