11 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Padova vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Referee: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Padova 0-2 Carrarese.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Padova, 30% draw, 26% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Padova at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Padova0%Draw1%Carrarese99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Tommaso Rubinoassist: Gabriele parlanti
40'
Filippo Oliana
45'
🔁Fabio abiusoout: G. Marconi
🔁Mattia Bortolussiout: Gabriele Artistico
45'
51'
⚽Jonas Rouhiassist: Niccolò Belloni
Gianluca Caprari
51'
🔁Matteo Cocchiout: Francesco Di Mariano
56'
🔁Gianluca Caprariout: Marco Pompetti
56'
60'
🔁Tommaso Rubinoout: Luka Topalovic
62'
Matthias Braunöder
🔁Pietro Fusiout: Nicolas Galazzi
67'
72'
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Jacopo Martini
72'
🔁Jonas Rouhiout: T. Guercio
🔁Luca Moroout: Alexander Seghetti
79'
80'
Niccolò Belloni
82'
Gabriele parlanti
90+3'
🔁Gabriele parlantiout: Nicolo Cudrig

Match stats — Padova vs Carrarese

56%Possession44%
11Shots10
1On target4
5Corners1
0.9xG1.4

Goals against chances

Padova0 from 0.90 xGless than the chances were worth
Carrarese2 from 1.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Padova 3-5-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 32F. SgarbiD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 27Alessandro DellavalleD
  • 17A. CapelliM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 21E. ZuelliM
  • 10G. CaprariM
  • 34M. CocchiM
  • 20M. BortolussiF
  • 9L. MoroF
Substitutes
  • 7K. VarasM
  • 18E. SillettiD
  • 25N. GalazziM
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
  • 90G. ArtisticoF
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 15K. LasagnaF
  • 74D. MarcoliniM
  • 1L. MouquetG
Coach: N. Calabro
Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 33F. RealeD
  • 7N. BelloniM
  • 18Nicolás SchiaviM
  • 23M. BraunöderM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 9F. AbiusoF
  • 10T. RubinoF
Substitutes
  • 30N. RavagliaG
  • 66P. PinelliM
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 91G. MarconiF
  • 78Tommaso GuercioD
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 32M. FinottoF
  • 70N. CudrigF
  • 11M. CisséF
Coach: G. Pagliuca

Form going into Padova vs Carrarese

Padova

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Palermo19 September 2026
  • W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
  • D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026

Carrarese

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
  • L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
  • L1-2Mantova22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Padova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Carrarese did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Carrarese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Padova114341213-115
17Carrarese11317914-510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Padova vs Carrarese

  • 10 February 2026Padova 1–0 CarrareseSerie B
  • 31 August 2025Carrarese 0–0 PadovaSerie B

The result against the call

Carrarese won 2–0 at Padova. The model had leaned towards a win for Padova at 44% and given a win for Carrarese 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tommaso Rubino 14' for Carrarese, Jonas Rouhi 51' for Carrarese. On expected goals it finished 0.90–1.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Padova a 10.7% chance to finish in the top four: 13.2% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

For Carrarese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.4% going in: 34.1% after a win, 40.8% after a draw, 47.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.1%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Padova v Carrarese has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 32% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 30% / 26%: the biggest move is Padova's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Padova win44%▲ +4
  2. Draw30%▼ −2
  3. Carrarese win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.