Catanzaro vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Catanzaro 1-3 Mantova.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Catanzaro, 25% draw, 30% Mantova — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Catanzaro at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Catanzaro vs Mantova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22M. PigliacelliG
- 24M. RuggeroD
- 4Matias AntoniniD
- 3M. ImperialeD
- 62R. FrosininiM
- 98N. MostiM
- 10J. PetriccioneM
- 93M. DorvalM
- 20S. PafundiM
- 30G. AlesiM
- 9P. IemmelloF
- 91G. ArditiF
- 7N. BusoF
- 27A. CandelaD
- 77M. D'AlessandroF
- 14S. GiovaneM
- 19N. KoffiF
- 1C. MariettaG
- 31E. PecorinoF
- 29F. Di FrancescoF
- 22F. BardiG
- 5B. TomaševićD
- 29S. CellaD
- 27A. CastelliniD
- 41Jonathan SilvaM
- 25L. IgnacchitiM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
- 30D. BragantiniF
- 19F. RuoccoF
- 8R. IlieF
- 11I. CajazzoM
- 58Tommaso Del LungoD
- 12M. GaspariniG
- 1L. GemelloG
- 9E. GliozziF
- 6J. MboyoM
- 18S. KeitaM
- 75E. KošpoD
- 33Cristian MaraiD
Form going into Catanzaro vs Mantova
Catanzaro
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026
Mantova
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mantova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mantova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mantova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Catanzaro | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Mantova
- 14 February 2026Catanzaro 2–0 MantovaSerie B
- 29 October 2025Mantova 1–3 CatanzaroSerie B
- 13 May 2025Mantova 0–0 CatanzaroSerie B
- 23 November 2024Catanzaro 2–2 MantovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Mantova
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mantova won 3–1 at Catanzaro. The model had leaned towards a win for Catanzaro at 45% and given a win for Mantova 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bodin Tomašević 30' for Mantova, Francesco Ruocco 34' for Mantova, Davide Bragantini 55' for Mantova, Matias Antonini Lui 90+1' for Catanzaro. On expected goals it finished 1.04–2.80.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Catanzaro a 14.3% chance to finish in the top four: 16.8% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.5%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
For Mantova the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 27.0% going in: 32.2% after a win, 26.5% after a draw, 24.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.2%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Catanzaro v Mantova has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Catanzaro's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Catanzaro win45%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Mantova win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.