Catanzaro
vs
Mantova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Catanzaro 2–1 Mantova
The model makes it 42% Catanzaro, 27% draw, 31% Mantova — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.80, Mantova 1.38.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Catanzaro vs Mantova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Catanzaro at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Catanzaro vs Mantova
Catanzaro
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026
Mantova
- D2-2Pisa20 September 2026
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mantova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mantova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mantova conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Catanzaro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 3 | Mantova | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Mantova
- 14 February 2026Catanzaro 2–0 MantovaSerie B
- 29 October 2025Mantova 1–3 CatanzaroSerie B
- 13 May 2025Mantova 0–0 CatanzaroSerie B
- 23 November 2024Catanzaro 2–2 MantovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Mantova
Catanzaro
- P. Iemmello2 goals
Mantova
- F. Ruocco4 goals
- V. Vlahović2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Catanzaro carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.57 for Mantova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Catanzaro and 1.38 for Mantova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Catanzaro rate 0.84 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mantova rate 0.81 and 1.43.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mantova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Catanzaro the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Catanzaro against 1.38 for Mantova. Catanzaro's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.43 for Mantova.