Criciuma
vs
America Mineiro
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro
The model makes it 53% Criciuma, 28% draw, 19% America Mineiro — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Criciuma 1.87, America Mineiro 0.70.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Criciuma are 4th on 53 points from 31 games; America Mineiro are 19th on 17 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Criciuma have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Londrina.
- America Mineiro are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Juventude.
- Last 6 meetings: Criciuma 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 June 2026, ended America Mineiro 0–1 Criciuma.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Criciuma at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Criciuma vs America Mineiro
Criciuma
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
- L0-2Operario-PR22 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Goianiense13 September 2026
- L0-2Juventude9 September 2026
America Mineiro
- L0-1Juventude28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vila Nova18 September 2026
- L0-2São Bernardo14 September 2026
- W2-1Nautico Recife9 September 2026
- L1-3away to CRB5 September 2026
What these results say
- America Mineiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- America Mineiro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Criciuma | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 53 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Criciuma vs America Mineiro
- 23 June 2026America Mineiro 0–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 12 October 2025Criciuma 2–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 21 June 2025America Mineiro 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 10 June 2021Criciuma 2–2 America MineiroCopa Do Brasil
- 3 June 2021America Mineiro 0–0 CriciumaCopa Do Brasil
- 11 September 2019America Mineiro 2–1 CriciumaSerie B
The two sides
Criciuma carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.07 for America Mineiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Criciuma and 0.70 for America Mineiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Criciuma rate 0.56 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; America Mineiro rate 0.43 and 2.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Criciuma a 2.5% chance of the title and America Mineiro 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Criciuma the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Criciuma against 0.70 for America Mineiro. Criciuma's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.05 for America Mineiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Criciuma at home · America Mineiro away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Criciuma 31, America Mineiro 30.
Criciuma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); America Mineiro have let in 16 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Criciuma
- at São Bernardo18 Oct · Serie Bwin 29%
- at Sport Recife24 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Ponte Preta31 Oct · Serie Bwin 65%
- at Vila Nova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
America Mineiro
- vs Operario-PR17 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Cuiaba24 Oct · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Londrina31 Oct · Serie Bwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.