11 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Modena vs Hellas Verona Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Modena 3-2 Hellas Verona.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Modena, 31% draw, 30% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Modena at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Modena5%Draw93%Hellas Verona2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Giuseppe Casoassist: Gastón Brugman
13'
Alessandro Bianco
16'
24'
⚽Daniel Mosquera
28'
⚽Daniel Mosquera
45+2'
andrea le borgne
🔁Alessandro Biancoout: Francesco Folino
53'
🔁Giacomo Olzerout: Andrea Belotti
53'
54'
Andrias Edmundsson
•Daniel Tonoli
62'
68'
🔁Nunzio Lellaout: Antoine Bernede
68'
🔁Davide De Battistiout: Domagoj Bradaric
68'
🔁Dailon Livramentoout: Kacper Sezonienko
74'
🔁Domagoj Bradaricout: Nicolo Calabrese
77'
Andrias Edmundsson
79'
🔁Daniel Mosqueraout: Tobias Slotsager
🔁Paulo Azziout: Daniele Montevago
81'
⚽Daniele Montevagoassist: Giuseppe Caso
85'
🔁Gastón Brugmanout: Wisdom Acquah
89'
⚽Andrea Belotti
90+5'
Andrea Belotti
90+7'

Match stats — Modena vs Hellas Verona

62%Possession38%
23Shots14
6On target7
3Corners4
2.4xG2.09

Goals against chances

Modena3 from 2.40 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hellas Verona2 from 2.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Modena 3-5-2
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 77D. TonoliD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 72G. OlzerM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
  • 10G. CasoF
Substitutes
  • 7F. ZampanoD
  • 73P. ArnaboldiM
  • 29L. BacchinF
  • 11A. BelottiF
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 26A. ImputatoF
  • 25A. LaidaniG
  • 9D. MontevagoF
Coach: D. Galloppa
Hellas Verona 4-4-2
  • 34S. PerilliG
  • 4G. ZappaD
  • 27P. DawidowiczD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 71D. De BattistiD
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 44E. IannoniM
  • 23N. LellaM
  • 9A. SarrM
  • 14D. LivramentoF
  • 25D. MosqueraF
Substitutes
  • 35S. CerboneF
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 37N. CalabreseD
  • 79K. SezonienkoF
  • 28T. SlotsagerD
  • 6D. BradarićD
  • 24A. BernedeM
Coach: M. Baroni

Form going into Modena vs Hellas Verona

Modena

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
  • L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026

Hellas Verona

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
  • W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
  • L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Modena117222010+1023
7Hellas Verona114431913+616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Modena vs Hellas Verona

  • 29 July 2021Hellas Verona 3–2 ModenaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Modena and Hellas Verona

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Hellas Verona

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mosquera70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena beat Hellas Verona 3–2. The model had made a win for Modena its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Giuseppe Caso 13' for Modena, Daniel Mosquera 24' for Hellas Verona, Daniel Mosquera 28' for Hellas Verona, Daniele Montevago 85' for Modena, Andrea Belotti 90+5' for Modena. Sent off: Andrias Edmundsson (Hellas Verona) 77'. On expected goals it finished 2.40–2.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Modena a 46.9% chance to finish in the top four: 52.7% after a win, 43.9% after a draw, 40.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.7%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

For Hellas Verona the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 31.9% going in: 37.9% after a win, 31.4% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.