Modena
vs
Hellas Verona
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Modena 1–0 Hellas Verona
The model makes it 38% Modena, 32% draw, 30% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Modena 1.21, Hellas Verona 0.97.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Modena vs Hellas Verona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 38% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Modena vs Hellas Verona
Modena
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
Hellas Verona
- W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
- L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026
What these results say
- Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Modena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Modena vs Hellas Verona
- 29 July 2021Hellas Verona 3–2 ModenaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Modena and Hellas Verona
Modena
- G. Ambrosino2 goals2 assists
- G. Caso2 goals
- G. Olzer2 goals
Hellas Verona
- S. Mulattieri2 goals1 assists
- S. Cerbone2 goals
- D. Mosquera2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Modena carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.66 for Hellas Verona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Modena and 0.97 for Hellas Verona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Modena rate 0.73 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hellas Verona rate 0.75 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Modena against 0.97 for Hellas Verona. Modena's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.11 for Hellas Verona.