Fortaleza EC
vs
CRB
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRB
The model makes it 52% Fortaleza EC, 25% draw, 23% CRB — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Fortaleza EC 2.32, CRB 1.12.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Fortaleza EC are 5th on 53 points from 31 games; CRB are 7th on 48 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Nautico Recife.
- CRB have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to São Bernardo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 June 2026, ended CRB 1–1 Fortaleza EC.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fortaleza EC vs CRB
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza EC at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortaleza EC vs CRB
Fortaleza EC
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026
- D1-1Ceara13 September 2026
- W1-0Avai9 September 2026
CRB
- L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
- W3-0Cuiaba27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ponte Preta20 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Recife16 September 2026
- L0-3away to Operario-PR9 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CRB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs CRB
- 21 June 2026CRB 1–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 14 May 2026CRB 0–0 Fortaleza ECCopa Do Brasil
- 22 April 2026Fortaleza EC 2–1 CRBCopa Do Brasil
- 27 March 2025Fortaleza EC 0–1 CRBCopa do Nordeste
- 9 June 2024CRB 2–0 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
- 6 June 2024Fortaleza EC 2–0 CRBCopa do Nordeste
Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and CRB
Fortaleza EC
- Maílton7 goals1 assist
- Vitinho6 goals
CRB
- Mikael15 goals4 assists
- Dadá Belmonte5 goals5 assists
- Crystopher5 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortaleza EC carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.39 for CRB. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.12 for CRB. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortaleza EC rate 0.78 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CRB rate 0.71 and 1.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortaleza EC a 15.7% chance of the title and CRB 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Fortaleza EC against 1.12 for CRB. Fortaleza EC's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.83 for CRB.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortaleza EC at home · CRB away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Fortaleza EC 31, CRB 31.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); CRB have let in 12 there.
CRB score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Fortaleza EC have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortaleza EC
- at Sport Recife16 Oct · Serie Bwin 33%
- at Ponte Preta24 Oct · Serie Bwin 63%
- vs Atletico Goianiense31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Novorizontino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
CRB
- vs Botafogo SP18 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- vs Londrina24 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Goias31 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- at Nautico Recife7 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.