Oviedo vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Oviedo 0-0 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Oviedo, 27% draw, 23% Burgos — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oviedo vs Burgos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13A. EscandellG
- 2A. AhmedD
- 12D. CalvoD
- 23C. DominguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 10A. ReinaM
- 16A. AldasoroM
- 20P. SaenzM
- 6D. VillahermosaM
- 11J. GonzalezM
- 24A. IsfanF
- 1M. NarvaezG
- 21D. JimenezD
- 3J. CruzD
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 5Y. LachhabM
- 8M. Goti LopezM
- 28D. MenendezM
- 32E. PerezM
- 18V. MingoF
- 13A. CanteroG
- 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
- 6S. GonzalezD
- 8G. SierraD
- 3I. VilarrasaD
- 20J. GrageraM
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
- 16C. SanchezM
- 19J. LlabresM
- 9A. ForesF
- 1B. IribarneG
- 22B. MartinezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 12U. VencedorM
- 18S. del CerroM
- 10K. AppinM
- 5M. ExpositoM
- 17M. CanteroM
- 11V. MollejoF
Form going into Oviedo vs Burgos
Oviedo
- W1-0away to Albacete29 August 2026
- L0-1Leganes22 August 2026
- D0-0Granada CF15 August 2026
Burgos
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Burgos
- 22 February 2025Burgos 1–2 OviedoSegunda División
- 3 November 2024Oviedo 3–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 17 February 2024Oviedo 5–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 26 August 2023Burgos 1–0 OviedoSegunda División
- 12 February 2023Oviedo 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 10 September 2022Burgos 0–0 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Burgos
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez30
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés31
- David González31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.