Espanyol
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 45% Espanyol, 27% draw, 28% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Espanyol 1.51, Sevilla 1.16.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Espanyol
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
- W3-0Levante16 August 2026
Sevilla
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Sevilla
- 9 May 2026Sevilla 2–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 24 November 2025Espanyol 2–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 25 January 2025Sevilla 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 25 October 2024Espanyol 0–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 4 May 2023Sevilla 3–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 10 September 2022Espanyol 2–3 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández2 goals
Sevilla
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Espanyol carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.87 for Sevilla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Espanyol W-L; Sevilla W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Espanyol and 1.16 for Sevilla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Espanyol rate 0.91 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sevilla rate 0.90 and 0.88.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sevilla, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Espanyol the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Espanyol against 1.16 for Sevilla. Espanyol's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.88 for Sevilla.