Sabadell
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 43% Sabadell, 25% draw, 32% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sabadell 1.59, Cordoba 1.35.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sabadell
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sporting Gijon17 August 2026
Cordoba
- W2-1Girona21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Burgos16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sabadell | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sabadell
No league goals recorded yet.
Cordoba
- Diego Bri1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sabadell carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.69 for Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sabadell D-D; Cordoba L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Sabadell and 1.35 for Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabadell rate 0.39 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cordoba rate 1.24 and 2.16.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sabadell against 1.35 for Cordoba. Sabadell's attack/defence rating is 0.39/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/2.16 for Cordoba.