Castellón vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Castellón 2-0 Albacete.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Castellón, 27% draw, 26% Albacete — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Castellón vs Albacete
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13R. MatthysG
- 22J. MellotD
- 5A. JimenezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 2Juanjo NietoM
- 21AlvaroM
- 8BarriM
- 14I. CordobaM
- 18P. SantiagoF
- 17F. CastilloF
- 9O. CamaraF
- 1A. SaipiG
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 12L. AlcazarD
- 10I. SueroM
- 23A. GarciaF
- 27A. GalaM
- 25J. VlakM
- 7R. SanchezF
- 6M. OrozcoM
- 13D. MarinoG
- 15F. GamezD
- 5J. MorenoD
- 22L. LopezD
- 21C. NevaD
- 18S. OrtunoM
- 8J. VillarM
- 2LorenzoM
- 4Agus MedinaM
- 17J. CorpasM
- 9M. SoberonF
- 1C. MarinG
- 24J. VallejoD
- 27D. BernabeuD
- 6A. PachecoM
- 44Antonio DavidM
- 32A. AlbarracinF
- 12H. MarinF
- 19A. RubioF
Form going into Castellón vs Albacete
Castellón
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026
Albacete
- L0-1Oviedo29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Sociedad II22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Las Palmas16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Castellón vs Albacete
- 28 March 2026Albacete 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 19 October 2025Castellón 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 4 April 2025Castellón 2–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 8 December 2024Albacete 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
- 6 August 2023Castellón 2–6 AlbaceteFriendlies Clubs
- 17 April 2022Castellón 0–0 AlbacetePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
Leading scorers: Castellón and Albacete
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Ousmane Camara41
- Israel Suero32
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.