Alaves
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 62% Alaves, 20% draw, 18% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Alaves 2.25, Osasuna 1.14.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Alaves
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Osasuna
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
Where they stand. Osasuna has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Osasuna
- 5 April 2026Alaves 2–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 20 December 2025Osasuna 3–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 24 May 2025Alaves 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 8 December 2024Osasuna 2–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 10 August 2024Osasuna 1–2 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 4 March 2024Osasuna 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
Leading scorers
Alaves
- M. Díaz2 goals2 assists
- N. Tenaglia1 goals
Osasuna
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alaves carry a model rating of 7.12 against 6.93 for Osasuna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Alaves W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Alaves and 1.14 for Osasuna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alaves rate 1.31 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Osasuna rate 1.07 and 0.91.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alaves the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Alaves against 1.14 for Osasuna. Alaves's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.91 for Osasuna.