Eibar vs Granada CF Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eibar 3-0 Granada CF.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Eibar, 29% draw, 35% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eibar at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eibar vs Granada CF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. MagunagoitiaG
- 22A. RodriguezD
- 4U. ElgezabalD
- 23A. ArbillaD
- 24J. BernatD
- 30A. GarridoM
- 8A. MadariagaM
- 7A. AresM
- 21I. GilM
- 10J. GuruzetaM
- 9J. BautistaF
- 1L. LopezG
- 2S. CuberoD
- 15J. AmadorD
- 18M. AranaD
- 28L. NunezM
- 17PejinoF
- 20Javier MartonF
- 32C. LumbrerasF
- 29I. ZubiriaF
- 13R. LizoainG
- 18S. LopezD
- 5M. LamaD
- 35B. DembeleD
- 16D. Varela PampinD
- 6G. GumbauM
- 4R. AlcarazM
- 8P. AlemanM
- 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
- 19C. OnouhaF
- 11J. M. ArnaizF
- 1A. FloresG
- 23B. GimberD
- 3D. HormigoD
- 30JuanjoD
- 33A. GarciaD
- 27M. Jimenez GambinM
- 32D. RodriguezM
- 9A. MarquesF
- 10J. PascualF
Form going into Eibar vs Granada CF
Eibar
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
Granada CF
- W3-1away to Cordoba30 August 2026
- W2-0Mallorca24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 21 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Granada CF
- 19 January 2026Granada CF 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 22 August 2025Eibar 3–0 Granada CFSegunda División
- 12 May 2025Granada CF 0–2 EibarSegunda División
- 21 December 2024Eibar 1–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 30 April 2023Granada CF 1–1 EibarSegunda División
- 12 September 2022Eibar 4–0 Granada CFSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Granada CF
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Jon Guruzeta32
- Iván Gil31
Granada CF
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.