Almeria
vs
Cadiz
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 50% Almeria, 21% draw, 29% Cadiz — fair odds of 2.00, 4.76 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Almeria 2.23, Cadiz 1.70.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Almeria
- W3-0Eldense17 August 2026
Cadiz
- D2-2away to Eldense22 August 2026
- D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Almeria | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 | Cadiz | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Almeria
- Nico Melamed1 goals1 assists
Cadiz
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Almeria carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.63 for Cadiz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Almeria W; Cadiz D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Almeria and 1.70 for Cadiz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Almeria rate 0.96 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cadiz rate 0.79 and 1.23.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Almeria against 1.7 for Cadiz. Almeria's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.23 for Cadiz.