6 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Almeria vs Cadiz Segunda División prediction & result

UD Almeria Stadium, Almeria
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Almeria 3-2 Cadiz.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Almeria, 27% draw, 30% Cadiz — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Almeria at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Dilan Zárate
Stefan Džodić
8'
⚽Javier Munozassist: B. Cipenga
13'
25'
⚽J. Castroassist: A. Cordero
Brian Cipenga
32'
⚽M. de la Fuenteassist: B. Cipenga
36'
⚽Leo Baptistaoassist: B. Cipenga
44'
46'
🔁D. A. Zarate Hidalgoout: V. Kopotun
46'
🔁A. Corderoout: J. Ontiveros
46'
🔁D. Rodriguezout: B. Vazquez
54'
🔁G. Gocholeishviliout: J. Diaz Peregrina
🔁L. Leloout: A. Munoz
63'
🔁Leo Baptistaoout: A. Embarba
64'
67'
Marc-Olivier Doué
🔁M. Lunaout: D. Chirino
76'
🔁B. Cipengaout: A. Sola
76'
🔁Rodrigo Elyout: J. Pulido
80'
80'
🔁Jandroout: I. Sanchez
90'
⚽D. Chirino (OG)

Match stats — Almeria vs Cadiz

57%Possession43%
16Shots5
7On target1
3Corners4
1.4xG0.91

Goals against chances

Almeria3 from 1.40 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cadiz2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Almeria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FernandezG
  • 2M. LunaD
  • 19Rodrigo ElyD
  • 18F. BoniniD
  • 15L. LeloD
  • 29S. DzodicM
  • 33Q. JunyentM
  • 12Leo BaptistaoM
  • 14Javier MunozM
  • 17B. CipengaM
  • 24M. de la FuenteF
Substitutes
  • 31A. YaakobishviliG
  • 13F. MartinezG
  • 5J. PulidoD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 21ChumiD
  • 22D. ChirinoD
  • 6M. VesgaM
  • 10N. MelamedM
  • 23A. EmbarbaF
Coach: Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco
Cadiz 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. EzkietaG
  • 12G. GocholeishviliD
  • 14B. KovacevicD
  • 4J. CastroD
  • 22C. GutierrezD
  • 23D. RodriguezM
  • 5M. DoueM
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
  • 18JandroM
  • 16A. CorderoM
  • 19IzetaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. GilG
  • 6M. FernandezD
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
  • 15K. ToibibouD
  • 3S. ArribasD
  • 33M. RiveraM
  • 24I. SanchezM
  • 21V. KopotunF
  • 8E. AghamaF
Coach: Albert Celades

Form going into Almeria vs Cadiz

Almeria

  • L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
  • W3-0Eldense17 August 2026

Cadiz

  • D1-1Valladolid30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Eldense22 August 2026
  • D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Almeria9702165+1121
20Cadiz9144111107

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Almeria vs Cadiz

  • 8 February 2026Cadiz 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 16 November 2025Almeria 3–0 CadizSegunda División
  • 9 May 2025Cadiz 2–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 22 December 2024Almeria 1–1 CadizSegunda División
  • 25 May 2024Almeria 6–1 CadizLa Liga
  • 26 August 2023Cadiz 1–1 AlmeriaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Almeria and Cadiz

Almeria

GoalsAssists

  • Miguel de la Fuente51

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.