Masr
vs
Olympic El Qanah
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Masr 2–1 Olympic El Qanah
The model makes it 47% Masr, 26% draw, 27% Olympic El Qanah — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Masr 2.13, Olympic El Qanah 1.34.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Masr vs Olympic El Qanah
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Masr wins, grey are draws, red are Olympic El Qanah wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Masr at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Masr vs Olympic El Qanah
Masr
- L1-2away to Enppi9 September 2026
- W1-0away to El Geish1 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ahly28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wadi Degla21 August 2026
Olympic El Qanah
- D1-1El Geish7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Wadi Degla1 September 2026
- D1-1El Gouna FC28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Ceramica Cleopatra23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Masr | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Olympic El Qanah | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Masr and Olympic El Qanah
Masr
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Olympic El Qanah
- M. Wayo3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Masr carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.26 for Olympic El Qanah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Masr and 1.34 for Olympic El Qanah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Masr rate 0.62 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympic El Qanah rate 0.63 and 2.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olympic El Qanah, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Masr the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Masr against 1.34 for Olympic El Qanah. Masr's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.11 for Olympic El Qanah.