Orlando City SC
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 62% Orlando City SC, 20% draw, 18% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.27, Real Salt Lake 1.17.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Orlando City SC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC23 May 2026
- W2-1Colorado Rapids17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda11 goals
Real Salt Lake
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.47 for Real Salt Lake. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Orlando City SC D-L-W-W-L; Real Salt Lake W-D-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.17 for Real Salt Lake. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.84 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Salt Lake rate 0.67 and 1.43.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.17 for Real Salt Lake. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.43 for Real Salt Lake.