Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 2-1 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Cruzeiro, 24% draw, 25% Flamengo — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cruzeiro at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 15Fabricio BrunoD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 67J. CostaM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 41Leo AragaoG
- 27G. RojasD
- 12William FurtadoD
- 5Ze LucasM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 8GersonM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 97L. RodriguezF
- 20WesleyF
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Leo OrtizD
- 13DaniloD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 20Lucas PaquetaM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 42A. da Silva VenturaG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 61Joao SouzaD
- 77J. GoesD
- 8S. NiguezM
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 99LorranM
- 21JorginhoM
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
What these results say
- Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
- 20 August 2026Flamengo 2–1 CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 13 August 2026Cruzeiro 1–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 12 March 2026Flamengo 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 2 October 2025Flamengo 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 4 May 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 7 November 2024Cruzeiro 0–1 FlamengoSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Flamengo
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro beat Flamengo 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Cruzeiro at 51%. The goals: Pedro 22' for Flamengo, K. Arroyo 55' for Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira 90' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.24.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.