FC Cincinnati
vs
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 69% FC Cincinnati, 17% draw, 14% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.78, Seattle Sounders 1.23.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Cincinnati
No earlier matches on record this season.
Seattle Sounders
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Austin23 July 2026
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
- L0-1away to Los Angeles FC25 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey11 goals2 assists
Seattle Sounders
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Cincinnati carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.34 for Seattle Sounders. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Cincinnati D-W-W-L-W; Seattle Sounders L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.78 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.23 for Seattle Sounders. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cincinnati rate 0.92 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Seattle Sounders rate 0.58 and 1.60.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.78 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 1.23 for Seattle Sounders. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.6 for Seattle Sounders.