22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
Full time1 – 1

Final score: New York Red Bulls 1-1 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% New York Red Bulls, 24% draw, 34% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

New York Red Bulls at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New York Red Bulls5%Draw91%Chicago Fire4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Leonardo Barroso
38'
⚽M. Haile-Selassieassist: V. Radojevic
🔁M. Dos Santosout: J. Marshall-Rutty
46'
🔁M. Jimenezout: J. Ruvalcaba
46'
🔁C. Cowellout: M. Sofo
46'
🔁D. Nealisout: O. Valencia
56'
🔁E. Forsbergout: E. M. Choupo-Moting
57'
64'
Joel Waterman
65'
🔁S. Williamsout: A. Saletros
65'
🔁P. Zinckernagelout: R. Lewandowski
Mohammed Sofo
66'
77'
🔁V. Radojevicout: J. Dean
🔁J. Hallout: C. Harper
85'
⚽C. Harperassist: E. M. Choupo-Moting
85'
86'
🔁M. Pinedaout: D. D'Avilla
87'
🔁R. Lodout: J. Elliott
87'
🔁J. Bambaout: P. Dithejane

Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

48%Possession52%
11Shots10
6On target5
3Corners2
0.6xG0.89

Goals against chances

New York Red Bulls1 from 0.60 xGabout what the chances were worth
Chicago Fire1 from 0.89 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York Red Bulls
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 12D. NealisD
  • 2J. CheD
  • 14J. BazanD
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
  • 48R. DonkorM
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 7C. CowellF
  • 91M. JimenezF
  • 16J. HallF
Substitutes
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 5O. ValenciaD
  • 26T. ParkerD
  • 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
  • 39N. BenedettiM
  • 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
  • 17C. HarperF
  • 11J. RuvalcabaF
  • 37M. SofoF
Chicago Fire 4-3-3
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 2L. BarrosoD
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 16J. WatermanD
  • 14V. RadojevicD
  • 47S. WilliamsM
  • 22M. PinedaM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieM
  • 11P. ZinckernagelF
  • 17R. LodF
  • 19J. BambaF
Substitutes
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 6A. SaletrosM
  • 42D. D'AvillaM
  • 29D. PorebaM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 12P. DithejaneF
Coach: Mario Barcena

Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

New York Red Bulls

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
  • W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
  • L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026

Chicago Fire

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
  • W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
  • W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
  • L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
  • L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026

What these results say

  • New York Red Bulls conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New York Red Bulls failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10New York Red Bulls34126164862-1442
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

  • 9 May 2026Chicago Fire 1–3 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 27 July 2025Chicago Fire 1–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 5 April 2025New York Red Bulls 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 15 September 2024Chicago Fire 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 27 January 2024Chicago Fire 2–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New York Red Bulls at 42% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Haile-Selassie 38' for Chicago Fire, C. Harper 85' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 0.60–0.89.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.