Once Caldas
vs
Llaneros
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros
The model makes it 42% Once Caldas, 31% draw, 27% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.40, Llaneros 0.89.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Once Caldas vs Llaneros
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Once Caldas at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Once Caldas vs Llaneros
Once Caldas
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
- L1-2Deportivo Cali13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chico5 September 2026
Llaneros
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
- L1-2Deportes Tolima7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin30 August 2026
- L0-2Millonarios27 August 2026
What these results say
- Once Caldas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Once Caldas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Once Caldas | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Llaneros | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Llaneros
Once Caldas
- D. Moreno15 goals1 assists
- J. Zapata10 goals2 assists
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Once Caldas carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.44 for Llaneros. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Once Caldas and 0.89 for Llaneros. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Once Caldas rate 0.70 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Llaneros rate 0.60 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Llaneros, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Once Caldas a 0% chance of the title and Llaneros 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Once Caldas the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Once Caldas against 0.89 for Llaneros. Once Caldas's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.38 for Llaneros.