Once Caldas vs Llaneros Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Once Caldas 1-0 Llaneros.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Once Caldas, 29% draw, 23% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Once Caldas at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Once Caldas vs Llaneros
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99J. ParraG
- 22J. CuestaD
- 2J. CardonaD
- 30D. LondoñoD
- 33J. PatiñoD
- 5J. NietoM
- 42J. QuiñónesM
- 7M. BarriosM
- 20A. RoaM
- 9Pipe GómezM
- 14J. ZapataF
- 12J. CamargoG
- 36Rafael Andres Acuña GonzalezM
- 31Jorman BeltranM
- 16J. CastañoD
- 19T. GarcíaM
- 21H. GuzmanF
- 18J. RiquettD
- 29E. TorresF
- 28M. ZuletaM
- 22R. RomañaG
- 20B. ChuriD
- 2H. MenaD
- 21F. MezaD
- 94J. MedrandaD
- 13J. CastillaM
- 95J. VásquezM
- 8J. RamÃrezM
- 33K. OsorioM
- 32F. CastañedaM
- 9C. CortésF
- 70J. ContrerasF
- 12J. LoaizaG
- 17Y. MenaF
- 7L. MirandaF
- 23A. MoralezD
- 10N. OspinaF
- 6Marlon Ricardo Sierra ZamoraM
Form going into Once Caldas vs Llaneros
Once Caldas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
Llaneros
All competitions we cover
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Once Caldas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Llaneros
- 30 March 2026Llaneros 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 19 October 2025Llaneros 2–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 27 March 2025Once Caldas 1–0 LlanerosPrimera A
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Llaneros
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno171
- J. Zapata133
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Once Caldas beat Llaneros 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Once Caldas at 48%. The goal: Jorge Cardona 68' for Once Caldas. Sent off: Jhon Vasquez (Llaneros) 75'. On expected goals it finished 0.74–1.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Once Caldas a 1.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, 3.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Once Caldas v Llaneros has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 48% / 29% / 23%: the biggest move is Once Caldas's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Once Caldas win48%▲ +6
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Llaneros win23%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.