Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pereira 0-0 Deportivo Cali.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Deportivo Pereira, 31% draw, 47% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 4.55, 3.23 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo Cali at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yimy GómezG
- 20J. MonroyD
- 15S. AguilarD
- 3N. RengifoD
- 23T. BovoneD
- 21W. PachecoM
- 37L. MorenoM
- 11J. LargachaM
- 10S. AcostaM
- 19M. AguirreM
- 18M. PérezF
- 14Ederson MorenoM
- 16Eber MorenoD
- 29M. DiazF
- 25F. DelgadoD
- 12J. BetancourthG
- 24M. PalaciosM
- 7Á. PlataF
- 27J. MoralesF
- 32Jhoan Sebastian Murillo MorenoD
- 38A. RodríguezG
- 27F. ViáfaraD
- 2J. MoyaD
- 4Fernando Antonio Álvarez AmadorD
- 28E. VelascoD
- 15L. ChaverraM
- 8D. GiraldoM
- 19J. MartínezM
- 10E. ReynosoM
- 20E. BelloM
- 9J. DinennoF
- 12J. CalderaD
- 21N. BenedettiM
- 70C. BaccaF
- 14A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 43Santiago MartinezM
- 32S. Alzate UribeG
- 23S. RodríguezF
- 16K. SandovalD
- 26J. TelloD
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Pereira
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
Deportivo Cali
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
- 29 March 2026Deportivo Cali 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 4 October 2025Deportivo Cali 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 15 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 17 July 2024Deportivo Cali 0–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 20 January 2024Deportivo Pereira 2–2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez113
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo Pereira and Deportivo Cali drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Cali at 47% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: Leyser Chaverra Renteria (Deportivo Cali) 35'. On expected goals it finished 0.56–0.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pereira a 67.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.2% after a win, 68.1% after a draw, 75.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 68.1%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo Cali the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 66.8% going in: 76.8% after a win, 60.8% after a draw, 50.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 60.8%, 6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo Pereira v Deportivo Cali has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 27% / 33% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 22% / 31% / 47%: the biggest move is Deportivo Cali's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Deportivo Pereira win22%▼ −5
- Draw31%▼ −2
- Deportivo Cali win47%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.