Deportivo Pereira
vs
Deportivo Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Deportivo Cali
The model makes it 27% Deportivo Pereira, 33% draw, 40% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 3.70, 3.03 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 0.75, Deportivo Cali 1.14.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 40% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Pereira
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas18 September 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga13 September 2026
- D1-1Millonarios6 September 2026
- L0-3Independiente Medellin4 September 2026
Deportivo Cali
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Once Caldas13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Millonarios11 September 2026
- D1-1Bucaramanga31 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Deportivo Cali
- S. Rodríguez10 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.62 for Deportivo Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.14 for Deportivo Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.48 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Cali rate 0.67 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Pereira a 0% chance of the title and Deportivo Cali 4.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 1.14 for Deportivo Cali. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.08 for Deportivo Cali.