Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sport Huancayo.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Deportivo Garcilaso, 27% draw, 21% Sport Huancayo — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Garcilaso at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. ZubczukG
- 55E. CanalesD
- 2A. SalazarD
- 19A. GómezD
- 23X. MorenoD
- 8A. GonzálezM
- 9F. CastelliM
- 10P. LabrinM
- 30L. da SilvaM
- 18C. RamosM
- 11F. ArancibiaF
- 27A. AscuesM
- 20A. RosellD
- 7L. RíosF
- 14C. TorrejónM
- 22J. PortalesD
- 88F. PachecoF
- 24C. OlivaresF
- 31J. BarbieriG
- 17S. RamírezF
- 12Á. ZamudioG
- 16J. FalconíD
- 26M. GaonaD
- 70J. ValoyesD
- 28J. RostaingD
- 7R. CampodónicoM
- 8D. CarabañoM
- 22R. SalcedoM
- 11Javier Andrés SanguinettiM
- 97D. PorozoF
- 10N. LujánF
- 29A. CcorahuaG
- 17J. GiménezF
- 19R. HuacchaF
- 23P. MagallanesM
- 9J. MartÃnezF
- 92Y. MurilloD
- 91A. QuiñónezM
- 4J. BarredaD
- 38E. VillarM
Form going into Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
Deportivo Garcilaso
- W4-0Universitario19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys13 September 2026
- W4-2Atletico Grau6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alianza Lima30 August 2026
Sport Huancayo
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Comerciantes Unidos12 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Boys5 September 2026
- W3-1away to ADT30 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Garcilaso won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Garcilaso scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sport Huancayo won every one of these 4 matches.
- Sport Huancayo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sport Huancayo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
- 10 October 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 18 April 2026Sport Huancayo 2–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 23 August 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
- 5 April 2025Sport Huancayo 0–3 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 19 July 2024Sport Huancayo 1–0 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 5 February 2024Deportivo Garcilaso 0–2 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportivo Garcilaso and Sport Huancayo
Deportivo Garcilaso
GoalsAssists
- L. da Silva113
- C. Olivares72
Sport Huancayo
GoalsAssists
- Javier Andrés Sanguinetti71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.