Junior vs Internacional de Bogota Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Junior 2-2 Internacional de Bogota.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Junior, 24% draw, 18% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Junior at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. MartínezG
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 98J. PeñaD
- 23P. OrtízD
- 26Y. SúarezD
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 22Jesús RivasM
- 10L. MurielM
- 18K. PérezM
- 25D. CaicedoM
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 38Andrés ShmalbachM
- 28G. CelisM
- 88B. CastrillónF
- 12J. AcostaG
- 8Y. CharáM
- 19F. FydriszewskiF
- 9G. PaivaF
- 7H. RiveraM
- 5D. RiveraM
- 1W. FariñezG
- 20J. CastroD
- 4D. RodasD
- 26A. IrazoqueD
- 13M. PerníaD
- 5L. VásquezM
- 8D. VictoriaM
- 25R. JulioM
- 11C. DájomeM
- 7F. SanguinettiM
- 9D. DuarteF
- 10F. BonéF
- 23J. CaballeroF
- 33K. CatañoG
- 19Y. GarciaF
- 22S. GiradoF
- 24R. ManjarrésM
- 32Jhon Jaider Steven Palomeque CalvoM
- 6Miguel AmayaD
- 14M. SantamariaM
Form going into Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
Junior
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
- W4-1away to Fortaleza FC20 September 2026
Internacional de Bogota
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Once Caldas4 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bucaramanga20 September 2026
What these results say
- Junior scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Junior conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Junior had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Junior | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
- 29 March 2026Internacional de Bogota 0–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 13 September 2025Junior 1–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 1 April 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 12 October 2024Internacional de Bogota 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 30 March 2024Junior 1–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Junior and Internacional de Bogota
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel163
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti107
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Junior and Internacional de Bogota drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Junior at 58% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Cristián Dájome 19' for Internacional de Bogota, Jesús Rivas 25' for Junior, Francisco Fydriszewski 71' for Junior, Fabricio Sanguinetti 74' for Internacional de Bogota. On expected goals it finished 1.69–1.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Junior a 4.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.8% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.7%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For Internacional de Bogota the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.5% going in: 1.7% after a win, 6.8% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.8%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Junior v Internacional de Bogota has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Junior's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Junior win58%▲ +6
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Internacional de Bogota win18%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.