Fortaleza FC
vs
Millonarios
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Fortaleza FC 0–1 Millonarios
The model makes it 31% Fortaleza FC, 31% draw, 38% Millonarios — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fortaleza FC 1.03, Millonarios 1.27.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millonarios at 38% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios
Fortaleza FC
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Fe5 September 2026
- L1-2Once Caldas2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chico26 August 2026
Millonarios
- D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026
- W3-0Chico19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cucuta14 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Cali11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Pereira6 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millonarios went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Millonarios scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Millonarios conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Millonarios
Fortaleza FC
- A. Arroyo9 goals4 assists
Millonarios
- A. Estupiñán17 goals4 assists
- L. Castro10 goals4 assists
- R. Contreras10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortaleza FC carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.63 for Millonarios. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Fortaleza FC and 1.27 for Millonarios. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortaleza FC rate 0.60 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Millonarios rate 0.75 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortaleza FC a 0% chance of the title and Millonarios 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millonarios the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fortaleza FC against 1.27 for Millonarios. Fortaleza FC's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.18 for Millonarios.