9 October 2026, 01:10 UTC

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: S. Bismark
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Fortaleza FC 1-1 Millonarios.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Fortaleza FC, 30% draw, 40% Millonarios — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Millonarios at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortaleza FC0%Draw4%Millonarios96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
Leonai·Souza de Almeida
45'
🔁Leonai·Souza de Almeidaout: Stiven Vega
Leonardo Pico
46'
🔁Jordan Garciaout: Mariano Vázquez
59'
71'
🔁Juan Cuadradoout: David Silva
71'
🔁Andrey Estupinanout: Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera
🔁Jhoiner Salasout: Julio Sinisterra
71'
🔁Sebastian Navarroout: Italo Montano Cortes
71'
74'
Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera
Juan Sebastian Herrera
76'
🔁Juan Sebastian Herreraout: Franco Pulicastro
86'
🔁Santiago Vivas Vélezout: Jhon Solis
86'
88'
⚽Rodrigo Ureñaassist: Sergio Mosquera
88'
Francisco Chaverra
Joan Cajares
90+1'
⚽Italo Montano Cortesassist: Julio Sinisterra
90+2'

Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

56%Possession44%
17Shots13
3On target5
3Corners5

Line-ups

Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1
  • 1W. BarlasinaG
  • 16J. CajaresD
  • 6Y. DíazD
  • 5J. Medina ObandoD
  • 15S. CueroD
  • 14L. PicoM
  • 25J. GarciaM
  • 8S. NavarroM
  • 28S. VivasM
  • 24J. SalasM
  • 9J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 4E. CabezasD
  • 2Andres MosqueraM
  • 7Í. MontañoF
  • 19F. PulicastroF
  • 12C. SantanderG
  • 27J. SinisterraF
  • 30J. SolísM
  • 10J. VelásquezM
  • 32Mariano VázquezM
Coach: Diego Arias
Millonarios 4-4-2
  • 1J. BurraiG
  • 3M. Diaz SamuelD
  • 4S. BarreiroD
  • 6S. MosqueraD
  • 22Sebastián Valencia IsazaD
  • 11A. EstupiñánM
  • 18R. UreñaM
  • 55LeonaiM
  • 13F. ChaverraM
  • 7J. CuadradoF
  • 23L. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 28S. VegaM
  • 14D. SilvaM
  • 10D. RuizF
  • 25D. QuinteroM
  • 35Sebastián MosqueraF
  • 26A. LlinásD
  • 20D. BangueroD
  • 12J. AguirreG
  • 30S. del CastilloM
Coach: A. Gamero

Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

Fortaleza FC

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
  • D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
  • L1-4Junior20 September 2026

Millonarios

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Independiente Medellin30 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Fortaleza FC181981728-1112
7Millonarios186932516+927

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

  • 31 March 2026Millonarios 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 21 September 2025Millonarios 3–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 6 April 2025Fortaleza FC 0–2 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 17 October 2024Millonarios 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 31 March 2024Fortaleza FC 1–2 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 18 August 2022Fortaleza FC 2–3 MillonariosCopa Colombia

Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Millonarios

Fortaleza FC

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Millonarios

GoalsAssists

  • A. Estupiñán194
  • L. Castro126
  • R. Contreras101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fortaleza FC and Millonarios drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Millonarios at 40% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Rodrigo Ureña 88' for Millonarios, Italo Montano Cortes 90+2' for Fortaleza FC. Sent off: Francisco Chaverra (Millonarios) 88'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortaleza FC a 43.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.0% after a win, 44.4% after a draw, 56.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.4%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For Millonarios the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 20.1% going in: 30.6% after a win, 14.1% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.1%, 6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fortaleza FC v Millonarios has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 31% / 31% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Millonarios's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Fortaleza FC win30%▼ −1
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Millonarios win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.