Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Águilas Doradas.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Alianza Valledupar, 29% draw, 34% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Alianza Valledupar at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40E. EstebanG
- 23I. AlbaD
- 22J. FigueroaD
- 32J. ViverosD
- 33jhildrey lassoD
- 55W. FernándezM
- 7J. CastilloM
- 14C. VillegasM
- 10D. QuiñónesM
- 8J. MuñozM
- 18Cristian VergaraF
- 77M. MartínezF
- 27Yeiner Stiwar Londoño RenteríaM
- 5P. FrancoD
- 6E. MezaM
- 3K. MorenoD
- 21Samuel NietoF
- 25J. PerezM
- 13A. SimancasG
- 11Brayan Stiven Viafara AponzaF
- 1J. SotoG
- 26D. LozanoD
- 4A. MosqueraD
- 3J. OntanedaD
- 32J. MenaD
- 19F. LozanoM
- 6I. RojasM
- 15F. SuárezM
- 8A. RicaurteM
- 7Eduar ArízalasM
- 21R. MárquezF
- 30N. LaraD
- 12Juan HurtadoG
- 29T. BlandonF
- 10Junior Alexander Noguera MachucaM
- 16M. RamírezF
- 24J. ÁvaloM
- 25J. RoaM
- 28S. RodríguezD
- 9A. VásquezF
Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
Alianza Valledupar
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
Águilas Doradas
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Alianza Valledupar | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Águilas Doradas | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
- 27 March 2026Águilas Doradas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 18 October 2025Águilas Doradas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 4 June 2025Alianza Valledupar 4–0 Águilas DoradasCopa Colombia
- 26 April 2025Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 6 November 2024Alianza Valledupar 3–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 17 April 2024Águilas Doradas 4–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Leading scorers: Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Alianza Valledupar at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Iván Rojas 21' for Águilas Doradas, Anthony Vásquez 45+3' for Águilas Doradas, Misael Martinez 90' for Alianza Valledupar, Jesus Figueroa (penalty) 90+9' for Alianza Valledupar. Sent off: Misael Martinez (Alianza Valledupar) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.38.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alianza Valledupar a 34.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.2% after a win, 38.5% after a draw, 49.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
For Águilas Doradas the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 2.8% going in: under 1% after a win, 2.1% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.1%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Alianza Valledupar v Águilas Doradas has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Alianza Valledupar's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Alianza Valledupar win37%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Águilas Doradas win34%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.