Alianza Valledupar
vs
Águilas Doradas
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Águilas Doradas
The model makes it 34% Alianza Valledupar, 31% draw, 35% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Alianza Valledupar 1.18, Águilas Doradas 1.20.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Águilas Doradas at 35% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
Alianza Valledupar
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
- W1-0Junior13 September 2026
- L0-3away to America de Cali3 September 2026
- L1-5Atletico Nacional30 August 2026
Águilas Doradas
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pereira18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Nacional13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Internacional de Bogota6 September 2026
- D2-2Chico30 August 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Valledupar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.
- Águilas Doradas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Águilas Doradas
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto11 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alianza Valledupar carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.42 for Águilas Doradas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Alianza Valledupar and 1.20 for Águilas Doradas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Valledupar rate 0.52 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Águilas Doradas rate 0.66 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Águilas Doradas the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Alianza Valledupar against 1.2 for Águilas Doradas. Alianza Valledupar's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.57 for Águilas Doradas.