Deportivo Pereira
vs
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Internacional de Bogota
The model makes it 37% Deportivo Pereira, 30% draw, 33% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 1.32, Internacional de Bogota 1.16.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pereira at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota
Deportivo Pereira
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas18 September 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga13 September 2026
- D1-1Millonarios6 September 2026
- L0-3Independiente Medellin4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pasto31 August 2026
Internacional de Bogota
- L0-2away to Bucaramanga20 September 2026
- L2-3Atletico Nacional17 September 2026
- W3-2Llaneros12 September 2026
- D2-2Águilas Doradas6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Millonarios30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota
- 18 March 2026Internacional de Bogota 2–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 12 November 2025Internacional de Bogota 4–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 12 June 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Internacional de BogotaCopa Colombia
- 23 May 2025Deportivo Pereira 3–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 15 November 2024Deportivo Pereira 4–3 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Internacional de Bogota
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Internacional de Bogota
- F. Sanguinetti8 goals7 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.36 for Internacional de Bogota. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.16 for Internacional de Bogota. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.51 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional de Bogota rate 0.66 and 1.78.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Internacional de Bogota, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pereira the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 1.16 for Internacional de Bogota. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.78 for Internacional de Bogota.