Lincoln Red Imps FC
vs
Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 21% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 20% draw, 59% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 4.76, 5.00 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1.41, Omonia Nicosia 2.39.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Lincoln Red Imps FC carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.61 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lincoln Red Imps FC W-D-L-D; Omonia Nicosia W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 2.39 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln Red Imps FC rate 0.54 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 0.85 and 1.38.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC against 2.39 for Omonia Nicosia. Lincoln Red Imps FC's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.38 for Omonia Nicosia.