Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
Panathinaikos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Panathinaikos
The model makes it 35% Olympiakos Piraeus, 33% draw, 32% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 0.99, Panathinaikos 0.93.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 35% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W1-0away to Levadiakos20 September 2026
- L0-1OFI12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
- W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026
Panathinaikos
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos won every one of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
- 13 May 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 19 April 2026Panathinaikos 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 8 February 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 21 September 2025Panathinaikos 1–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 11 May 2025Panathinaikos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 30 March 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 4–2 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos
Olympiakos Piraeus
- Jota Silva2 goals
Panathinaikos
- V. Taborda3 goals1 assists
- A. Tetteh3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympiakos Piraeus carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.98 for Panathinaikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.93 for Panathinaikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.82 in attack and 0.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panathinaikos rate 1.08 and 0.84.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Panathinaikos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.93 for Panathinaikos. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.84 for Panathinaikos.