11 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Super League 1 prediction & result

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Olympiakos Piraeus, 33% draw, 32% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olympiakos Piraeus at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus96%Draw4%Panathinaikos0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kostas Fortounis
25'
25'
Vicente Taborda
⚽Panagiotis Retsosassist: Remo Freuler
34'
43'
Santino Andino
Panagiotis Retsos
45+2'
45'
🔁Etiene Camaraout: Kings Kangwa
45'
🔁Giorgos Kyriakopoulosout: Anass Salah-Eddine
47'
Anass Salah-Eddine
51'
Stefan de Vrij
62'
🔁Vicente Tabordaout: Levi García
Manolis Saliakas
63'
Manolis Saliakas
66'
🔁Marius Mouandilmadjiout: Roman Yaremchuk
69'
🔁Kostas Fortounisout: Gelson Martins
70'
🔁Chiquinhoout: Marcus Pedersen
70'
73'
🔁Santino Andinoout: Cyriel Dessers
77'
Levi García
82'
Imrân Louza
🔁Nayair Tiknizyanout: Bruno Onyemaechi
83'
83'
🔁Azzedine Ounahiout: Adriano Jagusic
🔁Gustavo Puertaout: Santiago Hezze
89'
90+3'
Adriano Jagusic

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos

40%Possession60%
12Shots9
2On target2
2Corners7
0.81xG0.53

Goals against chances

Olympiakos Piraeus1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Panathinaikos0 from 0.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 15G. PuertaM
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 99M. MouandilmadjiF
Substitutes
  • 4Z. SmajlovićD
  • 73Joel RocaM
  • 31B. PopovićG
  • 70S. OnyemaechiD
  • 6David CarmoD
  • 11R. YaremchukF
  • 8Gustavo SáM
  • 17L. BaileyF
  • 10Gelson MartinsM
Coach: Imanol Alguacil
Panathinaikos 4-4-2
  • 1Iñaki PeñaG
  • 2D. CalabriaD
  • 6S. de VrijD
  • 55R. van DrongelenD
  • 77G. KiriakopoulosD
  • 20V. TabordaM
  • 22E. CamaraM
  • 26I. LouzaM
  • 10Santino AndinoM
  • 7A. TettehF
  • 21A. OunahiF
Substitutes
  • 12L. ChavesG
  • 4Pedro ChirivellaM
  • 9C. DessersF
  • 99L. GarcíaF
  • 8Adriano JagušićM
  • 42K. KangwaM
  • 70K. KotsarisG
  • 14E. Palmer-BrownD
  • 28F. PellistriM
Coach: Jacob Neestrup

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos

Olympiakos Piraeus

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Levadiakos20 September 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia16 September 2026
  • L0-1OFI12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026

Panathinaikos

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
  • W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
  • W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
  • W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
  • Panathinaikos won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Olympiakos Piraeus10721165+1123
1Panathinaikos10901225+1727

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos

  • 13 May 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
  • 19 April 2026Panathinaikos 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 8 February 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
  • 21 September 2025Panathinaikos 1–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 11 May 2025Panathinaikos 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1

The full Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos record →

Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos

Olympiakos Piraeus

GoalsAssists

  • Jota Silva51

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

  • A. Tetteh51
  • C. Dessers40
  • V. Taborda31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Olympiakos Piraeus at 35%. The goal: Panagiotis Retsos 34' for Olympiakos Piraeus. Sent off: Manolis Saliakas (Olympiakos Piraeus) 66'. On expected goals it finished 0.81–0.53.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.