Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Volos NFC
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Volos NFC
The model makes it 47% Aris Thessalonikis, 28% draw, 25% Volos NFC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aris Thessalonikis 1.72, Volos NFC 0.94.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC
Aris Thessalonikis
- D0-0Iraklis 190819 September 2026
- L0-2away to PAOK13 September 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026
Volos NFC
- L1-2AEK Athens FC20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Kalamata13 September 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos Piraeus5 September 2026
- D1-1Iraklis 190829 August 2026
- L0-2away to OFI23 August 2026
What these results say
- Aris Thessalonikis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Volos NFC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Volos NFC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Volos NFC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aris Thessalonikis | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Volos NFC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC
- 13 May 2026Volos NFC 1–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 18 April 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 14 February 2026Volos NFC 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 23 August 2025Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 Volos NFCSuper League 1
- 1 March 2025Volos NFC 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 23 November 2024Aris Thessalonikis 0–1 Volos NFCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC
Aris Thessalonikis
- Fabiano2 goals
Volos NFC
- M. González2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Aris Thessalonikis carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.32 for Volos NFC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.94 for Volos NFC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.67 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Volos NFC rate 0.61 and 1.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis against 0.94 for Volos NFC. Aris Thessalonikis's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.78 for Volos NFC.