Kifisia
vs
Panetolikos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Kifisia 1–0 Panetolikos
The model makes it 36% Kifisia, 31% draw, 33% Panetolikos — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kifisia 1.19, Panetolikos 1.08.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Kifisia and Panetolikos are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kifisia vs Panetolikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kifisia at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kifisia vs Panetolikos
Kifisia
- W2-1away to Atromitos19 September 2026
- D0-0Levadiakos13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos10 September 2026
- L0-2away to OFI6 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC30 August 2026
Panetolikos
- L1-3PAOK20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Panathinaikos13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Levadiakos6 September 2026
- W2-0Kalamata29 August 2026
- W3-1Asteras Tripolis23 August 2026
What these results say
- Kifisia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kifisia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panetolikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kifisia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 6 | Panetolikos | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kifisia vs Panetolikos
- 2 May 2026Panetolikos 0–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 26 April 2026Kifisia 0–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 9 March 2026Panetolikos 2–1 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 25 October 2025Kifisia 1–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 13 April 2024Kifisia 0–1 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 3 March 2024Kifisia 2–2 PanetolikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Kifisia and Panetolikos
Kifisia
- Jorge Pombo2 goals
Panetolikos
- G. Granath2 goals
- K. Opoku2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kifisia carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.47 for Panetolikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Kifisia and 1.08 for Panetolikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kifisia rate 0.58 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panetolikos rate 0.67 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Panetolikos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kifisia the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Kifisia against 1.08 for Panetolikos. Kifisia's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.42 for Panetolikos.