PAOK
vs
Kalamata
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: PAOK 2–0 Kalamata
The model makes it 63% PAOK, 22% draw, 15% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: PAOK 2.68, Kalamata 0.75.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: PAOK vs Kalamata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAOK at 63% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PAOK vs Kalamata
PAOK
- W3-1away to Panetolikos20 September 2026
- W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
- W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026
Kalamata
- L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026
- L2-3Aris Thessalonikis22 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Kalamata
- 10 January 2023PAOK 2–0 KalamataCup
- 14 December 2022Kalamata 0–2 PAOKCup
Leading scorers: PAOK and Kalamata
PAOK
- D. Pelkas3 goals
- A. Živković2 goals2 assists
- S. Shoretire2 goals
Kalamata
- E. Hamza2 goals
- J. Bolívar2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
PAOK carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.45 for Kalamata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.68 goals for PAOK and 0.75 for Kalamata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAOK rate 1.22 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalamata rate 0.68 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.68 expected goals for PAOK against 0.75 for Kalamata. PAOK's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.52 for Kalamata.