PAOK vs Kalamata Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: PAOK 1-3 Kalamata.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% PAOK, 18% draw, 10% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.39, 5.56 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
PAOK at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAOK vs Kalamata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99A. TsiftsisG
- 3J. KennyD
- 19Diego CostaD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 21A. BabaD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 18K. JakićM
- 52D. ChatsidisM
- 10D. PelkasM
- 11TaisonM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 2M. CamaraM
- 24S. BanzaF
- 6ElustondoD
- 13D. GiannoulisD
- 4P. HatzidiakosD
- 41D. MonastirlisG
- 56A. MythouF
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 47S. ShoretireF
- 40N. VasiljevićG
- 22P. KaloutsikidisD
- 4S. StroungisD
- 97RodriguesD
- 17Julio AlonsoD
- 23G. PiñeiroM
- 6D. DiarraM
- 77K. VargasM
- 24E. HamzaM
- 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
- 91D. KurminowskiF
- 10A. SigurðssonM
- 11Josete MirandaF
- 8A. LiatsikourasM
- 29U. IgnjatovićD
- 44A. GuessandD
- 26P. GinisG
- 1I. GeliosG
- 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
- 7J. CataldiM
Form going into PAOK vs Kalamata
PAOK
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Panetolikos20 September 2026
- W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Brann27 August 2026
Kalamata
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026
- L2-3Aris Thessalonikis22 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Kalamata
- 10 January 2023PAOK 2–0 KalamataCup
- 14 December 2022Kalamata 0–2 PAOKCup
Leading scorers: PAOK and Kalamata
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski50
- J. Bolívar30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kalamata won 3–1 at PAOK. The model had leaned towards a win for PAOK at 72% and given a win for Kalamata 10%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 10 matches like this one. The goals: Kenneth Vargas (penalty) 28' for Kalamata, Cherif Ndiaye 44' for PAOK, Kenneth Vargas 56' for Kalamata, David Kurminowski 66' for Kalamata. Sent off: Antonis Tsiftsis (PAOK) 62'. On expected goals it finished 1.29–2.37.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PAOK a 25.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 27.4% after a win, 19.7% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.2%, 11.5 points lower than before the match.
For Kalamata the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 44.1% going in: 31.8% after a win, 40.4% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.8%, 12.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on PAOK v Kalamata has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 63% / 22% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 72% / 18% / 10%: the biggest move is PAOK's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- PAOK win72%▲ +9
- Draw18%▼ −4
- Kalamata win10%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.