Regular Season - 4 · 12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Super League 1 prediction & result

Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Olympiakos Piraeus, 28% draw, 24% OFI — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85, OFI 0.96.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI

52%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-0 11%2-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus0%Draw6%OFI94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
🔁Dimitris Nikolaouout: Krešimir Krizmanić
Lorenzo Pirola
60'
66'
⚽Kenan Kodroassist: Nikolaos Athanasiou
🔁Remo Freulerout: Santiago Hezze
67'
🔁Armando Gonzálezout: Roman Yaremchuk
67'
69'
🔁Athanasios Androutsosout: Georgios Kanellopoulos
70'
🔁Kenan Kodroout: Anastasios Chatzigiovanis
🔁Kostas Fortounisout: Leon Bailey
75'
🔁Gustavo Puertaout: Gustavo Sá
75'
77'
🔁Andreas Bouchalakisout: Zisis Karachalios
78'
🔁Taxiarchis Fountasout: Giannis Theodosoulakis
🔁Chiquinhoout: Gelson Martins
83'

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI

62%Possession38%
20Shots13
4On target4
8Corners2

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 27M. PedersenD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 15G. PuertaM
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 7K. FortounisM
  • 34A. GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 8Gustavo SáM
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 17L. BaileyF
  • 10Gelson MartinsM
  • 90ClaytonF
  • 14Dani GarcíaM
  • 11R. YaremchukF
  • 4Z. SmajlovićD
  • 2M. SaliakasD
Coach: Imanol Alguacil
OFI 3-4-2-1
  • 31N. ChristogeorgosG
  • 5K. KostoulasD
  • 15A. PoungourasD
  • 43D. NikolaouD
  • 24L. DickmannM
  • 14T. AndroutsosM
  • 41A. BouchalakisM
  • 3N. AthanasiouM
  • 11T. FountasM
  • 10Aitor CantalapiedraM
  • 19K. KodroF
Substitutes
  • 90Pavlos KenourgiakisD
  • 30T. RomanoF
  • 18T. NussF
  • 1K. LiloG
  • 2K. KrizmanićD
  • 13P. KatsikasG
  • 6Z. KarachaliosM
  • 8G. KanellópoulosM
  • 17Borja GonzálezD
Coach: C. Kontis

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
  • W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026

OFI

  • W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026
  • W2-0Volos NFC23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Olympiakos Piraeus421132+17
3OFI430162+49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI

  • 12 September 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 OFISuper League 1
  • 14 March 2026OFI 0–3 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 3 January 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 3–0 OFISuper Cup
  • 6 December 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 3–0 OFISuper League 1
  • 17 May 2025OFI 0–2 Olympiakos PiraeusCup
  • 9 March 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 OFISuper League 1

Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • Jota Silva2 goals

OFI

  • K. Kodro2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.85 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.96 for OFI; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Kenan Kodro 66' (OFI).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.96 for OFI. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.37 for OFI.