Iraklis 1908
vs
Atromitos
Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Iraklis 1908 1-1 Atromitos.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Iraklis 1908, 29% draw, 29% Atromitos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Iraklis 1908 1.56, Atromitos 1.08.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Iraklis 1908 vs Atromitos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Iraklis 1908 at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Iraklis 1908 vs Atromitos
Line-ups
- 33G. AthanasiadisG
- 30Carles SoriaD
- 2P. VourosD
- 21PiñaD
- 3Vitor MeerD
- 31NanuD
- 18R. NizetM
- 90V. SourlisM
- 22K. KaïbouéM
- 69Y. RocheM
- 7E. KoljićF
- 4S. ChaklaD
- 1Georgios KarakasidisG
- 27M. KrainzM
- 9K. KushtaF
- 11Ivi LópezM
- 23Daniel Muñoz NavasD
- 8N. RadojaM
- 6CarlisM
- 43Pedro MarquesF
- 1L. ChoutesiotisG
- 12M. MountesD
- 4D. StavrópoulosD
- 32H. MagnússonD
- 21J. UronenD
- 5T. TsingarasM
- 8S. MoutoussamyM
- 23S. TsiloulisM
- 7S. ZuberM
- 2L. LyratzisM
- 9J. PereaF
- 88S. DiengG
- 33Konstantinos BatosM
- 31V. AthanasiouG
- 6T. KaramanisD
- 30A. KotsisM
- 24G. MitoglouD
- 16G. PapadopoulosD
- 10S. PnevmonidisF
- 44D. TsakmakisD
Form going into Iraklis 1908 vs Atromitos
Iraklis 1908
- W2-0away to Asteras Tripolis7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AEK Athens FC22 August 2026
Atromitos
- D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
- L1-2PAOK30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Iraklis 1908 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Atromitos | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Iraklis 1908 vs Atromitos
- 12 September 2026Iraklis 1908 1–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.56 goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.08 for Atromitos; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Sotiris Tsiloulis 24' (Atromitos), Pedro Marques 73' (Iraklis 1908).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Iraklis 1908 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 against 1.08 for Atromitos. Iraklis 1908's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.35 for Atromitos.