Regular Season - 4 · 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Al-Arabi SC vs Qatar SC Stars League prediction & result

Grand Hamad Stadium, Doha
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Final score: Al-Arabi SC 0-0 Qatar SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Al-Arabi SC, 33% draw, 31% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.03 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Al-Arabi SC 1.07, Qatar SC 0.90.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Al-Arabi SC vs Qatar SC

40%
Both teams to score
32%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-0 15%1-0 14%1-1 14%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al-Arabi SC at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Al-Arabi SC vs Qatar SC

Al-Arabi SC

  • W2-0away to Al-Sailiya3 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC29 August 2026
  • D2-2Al Shamal21 August 2026

Qatar SC

  • L0-1away to Al Ahli Doha3 September 2026
  • L2-6Al Sadd28 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Al Wakrah20 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Al-Arabi SC413053+26
10Qatar SC402249-52

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al-Arabi SC and Qatar SC

Al-Arabi SC

  • O. Tannane1 goals1 assists
  • M. Olunga1 goals

Qatar SC

No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Al-Arabi SC carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.38 for Qatar SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Al-Arabi SC and 0.90 for Qatar SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Al-Arabi SC rate 0.49 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qatar SC rate 0.51 and 1.34.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Arabi SC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Arabi SC against 0.9 for Qatar SC. Al-Arabi SC's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.34 for Qatar SC.