Crawley Town vs Chesterfield League Two prediction & result
Final score: Crawley Town 2-2 Chesterfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Crawley Town, 27% draw, 47% Chesterfield — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Chesterfield at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. MannoneG
- 24A. OdimayoD
- 6P. FarquharsonD
- 5C. BarkerD
- 12L. RichardsD
- 22A. AdeyemoM
- 20J. ArthursM
- 30Kai JenningsM
- 10S. Duke-McKennaM
- 27Dylan MorganF
- 9D. OrsiF
- 14G. Di BiaseF
- 2K. GordonM
- 17Osman KamaraF
- 13N. MichalskiG
- 16J. RussellD
- 28Nathan TinsdaleM
- 8L. WatsonM
- 23R. BootG
- 33R. HuttonD
- 5K. McFadzeanD
- 6J. SimpsonD
- 19L. GordonD
- 20G. McEachranM
- 8R. StirkM
- 24D. MarkandayM
- 18L. MarshM
- 31J. RandallM
- 10L. BonisF
- 37J. KoromaF
- 28W. GriggF
- 26J. EcclestonD
- 27K. DyerM
- 4T. NaylorM
- 7L. MandevilleM
- 46T. PearceD
Form going into Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Crawley Town
No earlier matches on record this season.
Chesterfield
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Tranmere3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cheltenham26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
- 21 February 2026Crawley Town 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 30 August 2025Chesterfield 2–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 3 February 2018Chesterfield 1–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 17 October 2017Crawley Town 0–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 27 January 2015Chesterfield 3–0 Crawley TownLeague One
- 29 November 2014Crawley Town 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague One
Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Chesterfield
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Crawley Town and Chesterfield drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Chesterfield at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lee Bonis 23' for Chesterfield, Louie Marsh 56' for Chesterfield, Gianmarco biase di (penalty) 61' for Crawley Town, Gianmarco biase di 66' for Crawley Town. On expected goals it finished 2.07–1.52.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crawley Town a 62.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 55.2% after a win, 61.9% after a draw, 66.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.9%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
For Chesterfield the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 39.6% going in: 43.6% after a win, 37.0% after a draw, 33.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.0%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Crawley Town v Chesterfield has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 27% / 30% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Chesterfield's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Crawley Town win26%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −3
- Chesterfield win47%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.