OH Leuven
vs
Standard Liege
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 41% OH Leuven, 24% draw, 35% Standard Liege — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.78, Standard Liege 1.62.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
OH Leuven
- L1-3away to Charleroi9 August 2026
Standard Liege
- D2-2Cercle Brugge8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | OH Leuven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Standard Liege | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs Standard Liege
- 8 May 2026Standard Liege 2–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 4 April 2026OH Leuven 1–3 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 12 December 2025Standard Liege 0–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 31 August 2025OH Leuven 1–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 26 April 2025OH Leuven 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 22 April 2025Standard Liege 0–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers
OH Leuven
No league goals recorded yet.
Standard Liege
- D. Eckert Ayensa2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
OH Leuven carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.89 for Standard Liege. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): OH Leuven L; Standard Liege D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for OH Leuven and 1.62 for Standard Liege. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OH Leuven rate 0.95 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Standard Liege rate 1.07 and 0.99.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Standard Liege, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OH Leuven the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for OH Leuven against 1.62 for Standard Liege. OH Leuven's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.99 for Standard Liege.