Cercle Brugge
vs
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 73% Cercle Brugge, 15% draw, 12% Lommel United — fair odds of 1.37, 6.67 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Cercle Brugge 2.95, Lommel United 1.20.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cercle Brugge
- D3-3St. Truiden14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Standard Liege8 August 2026
Lommel United
- D1-1away to St. Truiden8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Lommel United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Cercle Brugge vs Lommel United
- 11 July 2026Cercle Brugge 1–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2017Lommel United 0–1 Cercle BruggeChallenger Pro League
- 26 March 2017Cercle Brugge 0–5 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 3 February 2017Lommel United 0–1 Cercle BruggeChallenger Pro League
- 20 November 2016Cercle Brugge 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 14 October 2016Cercle Brugge 3–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
The two sides
Cercle Brugge carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.55 for Lommel United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cercle Brugge D-D; Lommel United D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.95 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.20 for Lommel United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cercle Brugge rate 1.10 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lommel United rate 0.78 and 1.42.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cercle Brugge the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.95 expected goals for Cercle Brugge against 1.2 for Lommel United. Cercle Brugge's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.42 for Lommel United.