Pardubice
vs
Artis
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 69% Pardubice, 17% draw, 14% Artis — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Pardubice 2.62, Artis 1.13.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pardubice
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha9 August 2026
- L0-2FK Jablonec2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové26 July 2026
Artis
- L1-2Sigma Olomouc9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slovácko1 August 2026
- L2-4Mlada Boleslav27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pardubice | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 13 | Artis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Artis
- 17 June 2020Artis 1–1 PardubiceFNL
- 28 September 2019Pardubice 2–0 ArtisFNL
Leading scorers
Pardubice
No league goals recorded yet.
Artis
- Q. Adediran2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pardubice carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.41 for Artis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pardubice L-L-L; Artis L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.62 goals for Pardubice and 1.13 for Artis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pardubice rate 0.75 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Artis rate 0.75 and 1.85.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Artis, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pardubice the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Pardubice against 1.13 for Artis. Pardubice's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.85 for Artis.