RAAL La Louvière
vs
KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 39% RAAL La Louvière, 29% draw, 32% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: RAAL La Louvière 1.23, KV Mechelen 1.08.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
RAAL La Louvière
- L1-2away to Anderlecht9 August 2026
KV Mechelen
- L0-2away to Gent9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | KV Mechelen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: RAAL La Louvière vs KV Mechelen
- 22 February 2026RAAL La Louvière 0–2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 30 August 2025KV Mechelen 3–2 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
- 30 October 2024KV Mechelen 3–1 RAAL La LouvièreCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
RAAL La Louvière carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.63 for KV Mechelen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): RAAL La Louvière L; KV Mechelen L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.08 for KV Mechelen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RAAL La Louvière rate 0.66 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KV Mechelen rate 0.59 and 0.99.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RAAL La Louvière the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière against 1.08 for KV Mechelen. RAAL La Louvière's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/0.99 for KV Mechelen.