Kortrijk
vs
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 28% Kortrijk, 24% draw, 48% Charleroi — fair odds of 3.57, 4.17 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kortrijk 1.31, Charleroi 1.77.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kortrijk
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV7 August 2026
Charleroi
- W3-1OH Leuven9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kortrijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs Charleroi
- 26 December 2024Kortrijk 0–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 25 August 2024Charleroi 1–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 11 May 2024Charleroi 3–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 14 April 2024Kortrijk 1–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 3 February 2024Kortrijk 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 23 September 2023Charleroi 1–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers
Kortrijk
No league goals recorded yet.
Charleroi
- F. Situmona Mbemba1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kortrijk carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.94 for Charleroi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kortrijk L; Charleroi W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Kortrijk and 1.77 for Charleroi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kortrijk rate 0.79 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charleroi rate 1.06 and 0.88.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kortrijk against 1.77 for Charleroi. Kortrijk's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.88 for Charleroi.