Anderlecht
vs
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Anderlecht 1–0 Zulte Waregem
The model makes it 40% Anderlecht, 33% draw, 27% Zulte Waregem — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.15, Zulte Waregem 0.74.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Anderlecht wins, grey are draws, red are Zulte Waregem wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Anderlecht at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem
Anderlecht
- W1-0away to KV Mechelen11 September 2026
- D0-0Genk6 September 2026
- W1-0Kortrijk3 September 2026
- L0-3away to Union St. Gilloise30 August 2026
- L0-1away to SK Beveren16 August 2026
Zulte Waregem
- L0-1Charleroi13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kortrijk6 September 2026
- D2-2away to KVC Westerlo30 August 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Union St. Gilloise15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Anderlecht | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 5 | Zulte Waregem | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem
- 22 February 2026Zulte Waregem 2–4 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 10 August 2025Anderlecht 2–3 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 18 January 2023Anderlecht 2–3 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
- 20 October 2022Zulte Waregem 3–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 12 February 2022Zulte Waregem 1–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 5 December 2021Anderlecht 3–2 Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Anderlecht and Zulte Waregem
Anderlecht
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Zulte Waregem
- Á. Zalán3 goals
- T. Hedl2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Anderlecht carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.8 for Zulte Waregem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Anderlecht and 0.74 for Zulte Waregem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Anderlecht rate 0.81 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zulte Waregem rate 0.76 and 0.87.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zulte Waregem, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Anderlecht a 0.1% chance of the title and Zulte Waregem 2.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Anderlecht against 0.74 for Zulte Waregem. Anderlecht's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/0.87 for Zulte Waregem.