Gent
vs
Standard Liege
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Gent 1–0 Standard Liege
The model makes it 52% Gent, 27% draw, 21% Standard Liege — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Gent 1.89, Standard Liege 0.80.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gent vs Standard Liege
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Gent wins, grey are draws, red are Standard Liege wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gent at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gent vs Standard Liege
Gent
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
- W2-1Club Brugge KV30 August 2026
- W2-1away to RAAL La Louvière16 August 2026
Standard Liege
- L2-4away to KVC Westerlo12 September 2026
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière21 August 2026
- D3-3away to KV Mechelen16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gent | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Standard Liege | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gent vs Standard Liege
- 23 January 2026Standard Liege 0–4 GentJupiler Pro League
- 25 October 2025Gent 4–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 22 December 2024Standard Liege 0–1 GentJupiler Pro League
- 10 November 2024Gent 5–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 18 May 2024Standard Liege 1–4 GentJupiler Pro League
- 29 March 2024Gent 5–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Gent and Standard Liege
Gent
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Standard Liege
- D. Eckert Ayensa4 goals
- A. Abid3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gent carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.59 for Standard Liege. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Gent and 0.80 for Standard Liege. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gent rate 0.86 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Standard Liege rate 0.80 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gent a 21.6% chance of the title and Standard Liege 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Gent against 0.8 for Standard Liege. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.35 for Standard Liege.