Plzen
vs
Zlin
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 68% Plzen, 21% draw, 11% Zlin — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Plzen 1.99, Zlin 0.67.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Plzen
- D5-5away to Teplice8 August 2026
- D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
Zlin
- L0-2Bohemians 19058 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sparta Praha31 July 2026
- L0-1Baník Ostrava25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Zlin | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Plzen
- C. Kabongo2 goals
Zlin
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Plzen carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.4 for Zlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Plzen L-D-D; Zlin L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Plzen and 0.67 for Zlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Plzen rate 0.77 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zlin rate 0.55 and 1.37.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Plzen against 0.67 for Zlin. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.37 for Zlin.