Pardubice
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 53% Pardubice, 23% draw, 24% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pardubice 1.91, Mlada Boleslav 1.25.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pardubice
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha9 August 2026
- L0-2FK Jablonec2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové26 July 2026
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
- D2-2away to Sigma Olomouc2 August 2026
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pardubice | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pardubice
No league goals recorded yet.
Mlada Boleslav
- J. Klíma3 goals1 assists
- M. Šubert2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pardubice carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.62 for Mlada Boleslav. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Pardubice L-L-L; Mlada Boleslav W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Pardubice and 1.25 for Mlada Boleslav. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pardubice rate 0.75 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mlada Boleslav rate 0.85 and 1.35.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mlada Boleslav, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pardubice the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Pardubice against 1.25 for Mlada Boleslav. Pardubice's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.35 for Mlada Boleslav.