Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Larne UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln Red Imps FC 0-2 Larne.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 25% draw, 42% Larne — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Larne at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Larne
Line-ups
- 13J. Hankins
- 6B. LopesD
- 3C. RutjensD
- 21NanoM
- 66J. EerstelingD
- 19Y. Flalhi IdrissiF
- 8MandiM
- 23JoeM
- 10A. MulaM
- 32F. AlvarezF
- 44M. ToledanoF
- 1Nauzet SantanaG
- 2E. JolleyD
- 4N. Pinto
- 5T. Cardozo
- 7L. CasciaroF
- 9K. GomezF
- 11A. Romero Morillo
- 17A. CoulibalyM
- 20E. BrittoD
- 1R. FergusonG
- 23T. CosgroveD
- 26D. BentM
- 3M. RidleyD
- 4A. DonnellyD
- 15R. DohertyM
- 6C. GallagherM
- 11S. GrahamD
- 25D. SloanM
- 45M. GibsonF
- 30M. LustyF
- 2L. WallaceD
- 7C. McKendryM
- 8M. Randall
- 9P. O'NeillF
- 14B. MageeM
- 16J. CarneyG
- 17J. UkekM
- 19K. O'Hara
- 22J. McEneffM
Form going into Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Larne
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia13 August 2026
- D1-1Omonia Nicosia6 August 2026
- D0-0Mjallby AIF28 July 2026
- L0-3away to Mjallby AIF21 July 2026
Larne
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199911 August 2026
- D0-0FC Iberia 19994 August 2026
- L0-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda29 July 2026
- L0-4FK Crvena Zvezda21 July 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln Red Imps FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Larne did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Larne failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Larne conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.