Lincoln Red Imps FC
vs
Larne
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 33% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 25% draw, 42% Larne — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1.41, Larne 1.60.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
The two sides
Lincoln Red Imps FC carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.42 for Larne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lincoln Red Imps FC W-D-L-D; Larne W-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.60 for Larne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln Red Imps FC rate 0.54 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Larne rate 0.57 and 1.38.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Larne the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC against 1.6 for Larne. Lincoln Red Imps FC's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.38 for Larne.