OFI
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: OFI 2–1 Asteras Tripolis
The model makes it 42% OFI, 28% draw, 30% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: OFI 1.70, Asteras Tripolis 1.27.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are OFI wins, grey are draws, red are Asteras Tripolis wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts OFI at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into OFI vs Asteras Tripolis
OFI
- W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
- W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026
- W2-0Volos NFC23 August 2026
Asteras Tripolis
- D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
- L0-2Iraklis 19087 September 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | OFI | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis
- 11 January 2026OFI 4–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 7 January 2026OFI 2–0 Asteras TripolisCup
- 3 November 2025Asteras Tripolis 3–0 OFISuper League 1
- 26 April 2025OFI 0–2 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 13 April 2025Asteras Tripolis 2–1 OFISuper League 1
- 2 April 2025OFI 1–1 Asteras TripolisCup
Leading scorers: OFI and Asteras Tripolis
OFI
- K. Kodro2 goals
Asteras Tripolis
- F. Macheda1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
OFI carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.57 for Asteras Tripolis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for OFI and 1.27 for Asteras Tripolis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OFI rate 0.78 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Asteras Tripolis rate 0.77 and 1.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OFI the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for OFI against 1.27 for Asteras Tripolis. OFI's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.34 for Asteras Tripolis.