Atromitos
vs
Kifisia
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Atromitos 1–0 Kifisia
The model makes it 44% Atromitos, 29% draw, 27% Kifisia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atromitos 1.64, Kifisia 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atromitos vs Kifisia
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Atromitos wins, grey are draws, red are Kifisia wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atromitos at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atromitos vs Kifisia
Atromitos
- D1-1away to Iraklis 190812 September 2026
- D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
- L1-2PAOK30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026
Kifisia
- D0-0Levadiakos13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos10 September 2026
- L0-2away to OFI6 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atromitos | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 12 | Kifisia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atromitos vs Kifisia
- 12 May 2026Kifisia 0–3 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 8 April 2026Atromitos 0–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 7 February 2026Kifisia 0–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 1 November 2025Atromitos 1–2 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 20 April 2024Atromitos 1–2 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 4 January 2024Atromitos 3–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atromitos carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.5 for Kifisia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Atromitos and 1.06 for Kifisia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atromitos rate 0.77 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kifisia rate 0.65 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atromitos the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Atromitos against 1.06 for Kifisia. Atromitos's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.31 for Kifisia.